Conservatives 1/5 Labour 9/2 Greens 12/1 Craig Murray 25/1 Ian Gibson 33/1 Liberal Democrats 33/1 UKIP 100/1 BNP 200/1 Bill Holden 200/1 Libertarian Party 500/1 Official Monster Raving Loony 1000/1 (Ladbrokes) From the doorstep experience, I think that is basically the right running order if the election were held today. Fortunately it isn't, and we have three weeks of intense campaigning ahead of us. I start from lower "brand recognition" than the parties, but am already moving up in public awareness very fast and we have some big campaigning surprises up our sleeves. Stop posting comments asking what you can do to help, and get yourselves to Norwich to pound the streets and deliver leaflets. There are a few other tasks as well, but 95% of the man-hours we need...

My suspicion that shouting ‘Tory cuts’ isn’t going to do Labour much good in the coming months is supported by two recent polls.First, YouGov asked whether people thought is was possible “in principle” to reduce public spending by up to 10% "by running our public services more efficiently, and without reducing the quality of public services or the level of welfare benefits".33% thought it definitely possible, 44% probably possible, 12% probably not possible and 3% definitely not possible.In practice, though, the spending cuts that parties would actually make were judged less optimistically – but this finding won’t help Labour. YouGov asked whether the Conservatives could reduce public spending by up to 10% “while preserving the quality of public services and the level of...

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Aren't they supposed to be green?After a week dependent on BBC World for his news, Tyler had begun to wonder if it had all been a bad dream. Surely the BBC wouldn't be focused exclusively on environmental issues, arts projects in Africa, and celebrity gossip, if the world was really in economic meltdown.On the plane back, five minutes with the Daily Mail reassured him he hadn't been dreaming. If anything, things have got even worse.So what have we missed?First, those green shoots have been cruelly blasted by the heatwave. The CSO says that when last sighted, GDP was still spiralling down. It fell by a scary 2.4% in Q1 (9.3% annualised): So in the first year of Brown's slump, GDP has fallen by 4.9%. That's three times worse than the 1.6% decline in the first year (1990-91) of Major's...

'Licence to teach' to be required in schools - Telegraph To keep the licence, teachers have to demonstrate that they have "up-to-date skills and learning to be effective in the classroom". Mr Balls said: "This is not a problem we are addressing, although it may be that we will discover some teachers who do not make the grade and some who aren't relicensed." He said the licence will put teachers on a par with high-status professions including doctors and solicitors. So he is claiming he is introducing a system to cure a problem that doesn't exist - I gather he doesn't like being called a liar so I'm at a loss to explain his statement. And all it means is that teachers will join the thousands of other professionals collecting CPD points from seminars, podcasts and signing in for lunch...

The Government has today moved the writ for the Norwich North by-election which will take place next month on 23rd July. The poll was triggered by the decision of sitting MP Dr Ian Gibson to resign from the Commons when the Labour Party barred him from standing again at the coming General Election. There are rumours that he may contest the by-election as an independent candidate.     The candidates named so far are:           Conservative – Chloe Smith (the favourite, aged 27 and has been the candidate for 18 months)           Labour – Chris Ostrowski (newly selected candidate who works for John Lewis –somewhat ironic as the “John Lewis list” was the first controversy of the MP expenses scandal)           Lib Dem – April Pond (third choice...

Just when I was starting to feel sorry for floundering Prime Minister Gordon Brown, he decides to woo conservative support by hitting out at an easy target; unemployed young people who don't want to take the first low-paid job or training place that comes. If they refuse a job offer or training place after a year, they will not get benefits.If the financial insititutions of this country had been better regulated, the job market would not be in the sorry state it was today. The man responsible for financial regulation in this country between 1997 and 2007 was Gordon Brown.Young people who have been out of work for more than a year may end up out of work again years down the line if they take a low-paid retail job in somewhere like Burger King. What happens if the retail market changes and...

Ed Balls has made a real Balls of things by calling up Coffee House blogger Fraser Nelson demanding that he takes down a blog post from the site. This has amused me and has made me chuckle so here comes some pointers for Mr Balls on how to handle the media and then bloggers.First of all Mr Balls the blogosphere can not get controlled, you can try, try and try again but you will never win and you will never control it that's because their isn't a Editor to pass the story by and ask his/her opinion on if they think the story is news worthy or not.Secondly Mr Balls the blogoshere is a community and bloggers stick together so if you fu** with one blogger you fu** with all the bloggers and they will damage you by reposting the blog post that you want removing.Fraser Nelson has done right to...

The commitments on health in Gordon Brown's plans for the future are particularly strong and clear, with the promise to give patientsenforceable rights to high standards of care, including hospital treatment within 18 weeks, access to a cancer specialist within two weeks and free health-checks on the NHS for people aged 40 to 74.The promise of a legal entitlement to healthcare within a defined period is an excellent reinforcement of a huge achievement of Labour's time in Government - the lower waiting times achieved by clear targets - and will cause a real headache for BMA/Tory spokesman Andrew Lansley, while giving patients real certainty and the chance to go private where the NHS fails to deliver.Despite the sniping about money and the predictable criticisms from political opponents,...

Lord Rennard resigned from his job as the LibDem’s CEO last month, claiming it was for “health reasons”, and that is a fiction that Clegg and the LibDem establishment are happy to maintain.  He was scheduled to leave office in September, however Chris Fox has already been appointed as his successor and is now in place in Cowley Street.  Rennard is therefore somewhat superfulous in Westminster. Nick Clegg confirmed last week that Chris Rennard would be running the North Norwich campaign, it is likely to be the last campaign Rennard runs.  It is a little awkward given that the reason for this by-election on July 23 is that Ian Gibson, the sitting Labour MP, stood down over his expense claims.  Rennard himself is mired in his own expense claim difficulties over his...

Mr & Mrs Tyler are on holidayA brilliant bit of bile from the DK.There is a serious point, though. There usually is when the DK is bilious. The point is quite straight forward. The government is to recruit, and finance, 100,000 personal private tutors to supplement the education system.Personal fucking tutors? I though that the education system under NuLabour was the best in the known world—what the hell do you need personal tutors for? Unless, of course, you have bollocksed up the education system which then begs the question—why the bloody hell do you think you'll be able to run a system of personal tutors, using yet more money that we don't have?The Devil's KitchenQuite. But it does not stop there.The government has also instructed PCTs to fund private health care for any...

Parliamentary by-elections on average attract more candidates than a constituency would at a general election.*The cause of the day – like a hospital under threat in the area, some local political fallout, or some national issue – attracts independent candidates to the ballot paper like flies to a soft banana.The North Norwich constituency is due a by-election fairly soon. The date hasn’t been set, but any time from mid-July to September is possible, but before the August holidays is the most likely time for Labour to get it over with.The sitting Labour MP Ian Gibson resigned “accused of claiming £80,000 of taxpayers' money on a London flat that he later sold to his daughter, below the market price”.With a majority at the 2005 election of just under five and a half thousand,...

Hilarious. The new Building Britain's Future plan has a handy download containing the following "key deliverables".£1.2 billion support for affordable housing to buy and rent [TBD][Launch of new £xm Innovation Fund]Free entitlement to 15 hours of high-quality early education every week for every 3 and 4 year old [check]London G20 deliverables [to add]Does that install faith in you that Brown has a plan? Thought not. Even his own policy is not sure what it is about.Just in case they fix it and realise what the arse is telling the elbow to do, the original they uploaded is here for your enjoyment and amusement.Via...

The campaign in Norwich North continues to hot-up with UKIP’s Leader Nigel Farage MEP and Norwich North by-election prospective candidate Glenn Tingle, signing up former Liberal Democrat county council candidate Corinne Russen. Corinne stood for the Sprowston Division in the election on 4th June 2009.She has now joined the UK Independence Party having been impressed with the policies of...

Gordon Brown's position of being in denial about future public spending cuts was reinforced today with news that the next Comprehensive Spending Review will be delayed until after the General Election.This enables the Government to try and maintain the fiction that expenditure will continue to rise throughout the post-recession years, even though their own forecasts suggest differently. It will also enable them to avoid any questions on detail. Instead they will say that this will be dealt with as part of the CSR. On the other side of the equation the opposition will be able to do the same.Understandable as it is that any new government will want to have all its options open on assuming office, none of this is much good for the cause of...

If nobody believes them anyway, it doesn’t matter that politicians lie.    Apologies to Nick Diamos’ Observations on Anthropology     Is Gordon Brown completely shameless?   Did his promise of openness and transparency, made only a few weeks ago, mean absolutely nothing?   Was it intended merely to stay the hand of the approaching executioner?   Was it a cynical and deliberate falsehood? Time perhaps will tell.  But appearances are bad.  The decision to publish MPs’ expenses heavily redacted and to hold the Iraq inquiry in private were body blows.  So is the announcement that the Treasury is to abandon this year’s Spending Review.  It had been scheduled for the autumn, but will now be delayed until after the general election.  Why? The obvious interpretation is...

So are the new 'rights' for patients being unveiled by Gordon Brown anything but spin? He has promised to scrap unpopular targets in favour of a list of rights that patients can demand: An operation within 18 weeks of patients first seeing their GP A free health check-up for all at the age of 40 Treatment from an NHS dentist Die at home if they suffer from a long-term medical condition See a cancer specialist within two weeks Be treated in accident & emergency departments within four hours. They all sound great but strangely familiar, except perhaps for NHS dentistry. Firstly, I doubt very much whether these targets will be scrapped in favour of a 'patient' right. I can't see Brown trying to defend himself on why he doesn't know what the length of waits are and I can't see...

The recession is not over. A thousand billion pounds of global derivatives have not been deflated. The banks remain as precariously balanced as a fifteen stone man on a unicycle. The world is still walking on eggshells, and that the necessary popular confidence in the banking system has been maintained means we're still in a breathing-space, not a recovery. Any loss of confidence by the market that results in a collapse of gilt prices could plunge the UK in particular into the abyss.The government have reportedly delayed producing the next draft Comprehensive Spending Review, to kick in from 2011 onwards. It doesn't matter that they won't be in power; the CSR defines spending decisions that will be made now. Capital projects with long lead times don't begin to spend big money for two or...

Christ Almighty, there's just no respite, is there? These witless fannies are still at it:Local residents will be given priority over immigrants and people from other areas on council housing queues, Gordon Brown will announce as he attempts to relaunch his flagging premiership today. In a shift in emphasis on public services which sees central targets replaced by new "entitlements", patients will also receive a legal right to hospital care within 18 weeks, along with free check-ups for the over-40s and guaranteed access to cancer treatments.In addition, parents are due to receive a "statement of entitlement" telling them what they can demand from their child's education. The Prime Minister's Building Britain's Future document is designed to underline Labour's continued commitment to...

Seriously, is Gordon Brown living in some kind of fucking fantasy world?Gordon Brown is to reject warnings about the scale of the public debt and press on with high levels of spending through the recession, according to the Prime Minister's closest [surely that should be "only"?—Ed.] ally Ed Balls.What the hell? For fuck's sake, can't some Civil Servant go over there with a bloody abacus and do some simple sums for the Gobblin' King? Y'know, and illustrate that we cannot fucking afford this!Mr Brown's determination to boost spending on frontline services will be underlined with the launch of his much vaunted national plan for public services on Monday.His Building Britain's Future document includes a number of proposals which will require significant Government spending. Fucking...

My congratulations goes to Chris Ostrowski on his selection as Labour candidate in Norwich North. I know Chris from his time as an activist in Mitcham and Morden CLP, and I know what a fantastic candidate he'll make for Norwich North, and for the Labour Party. He will be a great camapaigner for the party and very hardworking. This seat will be a hard seat to hold and by-elections for the governing party are always a challenge, but in Chris our chances of winning are greatly enhanced, and I'm sure he'll fight a great campaign to ensure the seat stays in Labour...

Norwich North Labour have tonight selected Chris Ostrowski, a former UEA student and contemporary of mine, as their lamb for the Norwich North by-election. Chris is a nice guy but has some choice views; however I have no doubt he will make a real fight of this election. Last I heard he was living in Ipswich so an interesting decision made by Norwich Labour there!Along with Tory Chloe Smith, LibDem April Pond, Green Rupert Read, a couple of Independents and the chaps from UKIP and the BNP I thinkthe slate is complete. Let battle...

Chris Ostrowski was selected to be Labour’s candidate in the Norwich North by-election this afternoon. Mr Ostrowski said after the selection: “It’s a privilege to get the chance to go from here and speak with my friends and all of the people in Norwich North to ask them to vote for me to become their MP. “Labour has an excellent record in Norwich. We have delivered seven Sure Start children’s centres across the city - in 1997 there were none. “Crime is falling and the number of police officers is rising. “Labour have introduced Neighbourhood Policing to help clamp down on anti-social behaviour in our streets and parks and they are working. “But there is still so much more to do. I know that Norwich is a great place to live, and it...

From the BBC, over the last two days: “Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liam Byrne said there was the need for a “power shift” away from civil servants and towards the public. The Guardian reports that the shake-up in public services will include entitlements to personal tuition in schools, minimum GP waiting times and access to...

Revelations this week that more than two dozen BBC executives are paid more than the Prime Minister seem to put the parliamentary expenses scandal into some sort of...

Over on Your Freedom and Ours I suggest that maybe, just maybe the Tories should get over their dislike of John Bercow, now Speaker of the House of Commons and start paying attention to what he is...

The Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, has confirmed his party is considering giving more powers to the Bank of...

Who will be the one to clean-up politics in the wake of the MPs expenses scandal? David Cameron? Gordon Brown? Or perhaps new Speaker John Bercow? Here's today's Journal column.So was it a petty act of revenge by Labour MPs who know they are going to lose their seats and want to leave as poisoned a legacy as they can for David Cameron and the Tories?Or was it a long-overdue attempt to provide a fresh start for a House of Commons tarnished almost beyond redemption by the MPs’ expenses scandal?If the truth be told, the election of one-time Thatcherite radical John Bercow as the 157th Commons Speaker this week was probably a bit of both.While some of the MPs who voted for him on Monday undoubtedly did so to make life uncomfortable for the Tories, who by and large detest their former...

Hey guys, how you been? Back from my blogging break with a few quick thoughts about the Norwich North by-election which looks like it's beginning to hot up.First of all the polling. As I thought it looks like the Greens could make a very respectable showing in this by-election. That's not always the case, in fact for some reasons the Greens tend to do far worse in by-elections than they do in the same areas for wider elections, even when they're target seats. We've pulled off increases before but generally we struggle - this time it looks like everything points towards a solid Green vote.The results of the UCU poll (and it is only a poll) are;Party.............UCU Poll..........2005 result.........DifferenceLabour.................30%..................

I've watched the deabte unfurl with interest started by Chatlotte Gore the other day about why she sees her blog as a hindrance to her being an effective Lib Dem PPC that could be elected to be an MP. I've no doubt that Nich Starling who at one point was being talked about as a potential candidate for the Norwich North by election as I myself, another approved candidate and blogger, read...

The University and College Union has this mornign published an ICM poll of voters in Norwich North.Con 34% (+1)Lab 30% (-15)LD 15% (-1)Green 14% (+11)Other 7% (+4)This shows that it really is, as the LibDems would say, a two horse race - between the LibDems and the Greens for third place. Just my little joke.Only 45% say they are certain to vote. Interestingly the Conservatives are furthest ahead (40%) in the 18-24 age...

I always believe in giving someone a chance. It what defines me. I believe firmly in the human spirit. Before you sense a 'but', well there is one. Watch this and tell me John Bercow is not an arrogant, little shit. Unfortunately, he is the Speaker of the House of Commons....

Headteachers to get more powers as era of centralised control endsThe government is to abandon the most significant education reform of the New Labour era in order to end the centralised control of schools and grant headteachers more powers, the Guardian has learned.In a totemic break from the Blair years, next week's education white paper will signal the end of Labour's national strategies for schools, which includes oversight of the literacy and numeracy hours in primaries. The changes will strip away centralised prescription of teaching methods and dramatically cut the use of private consultants currently employed to improve schools.They will give schools more freedom and establish new networks of school-to-school support to help drive up standards in what will be described as a "new...

Some disconnected thoughts on the present discontents: David Cameron’s merciless, if tiresomely and unnecessarily repetitive, dismembering of the prime minister in Wednesday’s Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) over the latter’s obstinate refusal to admit to Labour’s plans for stiff future cuts in government capital spending has been widely remarked on.  Gordon Brown’s apparent fixation with his favourite slogan, “Labour investment versus Tory cuts” has long ago ceased to cut any ice.  Everyone knows that whichever government is in office when Britain begins to come out of recession will have to act to reduce the huge volume of debt incurred as a result of the measures taken to deal with the financial and economic crisis.  Obviously even a...

Ros Scott, the Lib Dem party president, has just issued the following announcement that Chris Fox will take over as interim chief executive of the party during July: Following this month’s announcement that we will be appointing an Interim Chief Executive I am pleased to say that following a selection process Chris Fox has been appointed to this important role. Chris Fox joined us as Director of Policy and Communications earlier this year and he will continue to fulfil the tasks associated with this job . This is possible thanks to the strength of the individuals and teams working in Cowley Street. It has been underlined to me many times during the recruitment process that the Party has a fantastic Senior Management Team and I know that along with Chris, Ben Stoneham , Hilary...

The Green Party has selected Rupert Read to be its candidate in the forthcoming Norwich North Parliamentary by-election.At a packed meeting of 50 plus Green Party members tonight (Wed) Dr Read was selected ahead of fellow Norwich City Councillor Claire Stephenson, and former councillor Jessica Goldfinch.Rupert Read said: “I’m honoured to be given the opportunity to represent the Green Party in a by-election in which, for the first time ever, the national spotlight will be on the Green Party and our campaign and our prospects are being taken extremely seriously”.As well as being a Green city councillor, Dr Read (43) is also a lecturer in philosophy at the University of East Anglia.Dr Read recently won a huge expansion of the Green vote in the east of England in his campaign for the...

Prime Ministers Questions was yet another example of the Punch and Judy style of politics that is so prevalent today. It is reminiscent of two schoolboys arguing over who’s dad is bigger or stronger, yet, these grown-up children in Parliament are the very people we are supposed to rely on to represent our interests. We are slowly becoming a laughing stock as our politicians consistently fail to represent our interests, whilst many are guilty of taking the public for a ride in terms of their expense claims. Even the Ayatollah Khamenei believes that he is entitled to sit in judgement of the people of this country based on his views of our political leaders. Yesterday, Brown and Cameron swapped blows regarding the level of capital spending in the UK over the coming years. Brown is...

This morning I signed off on our candidate for Norwich North, and yet again I am afraid I am asking for your hard earned money as pay day approaches to make a success of this by election and to get us in the public...

ToryDiary: David Cameron to underline the Conservative commitment to rebalance power of the individual over the state "Emergency cuts cabinet" could meet immediately after a Tory election victory Mark Field MP Platform: How US-China relations could fatally wound the globalisation project Local Government:  Mayor of Doncaster recruits Tories to his cabinet Labour join Conservative-led coalition in Cumbria Sally McNamara on CentreRight: The EU is already trying to progress from Superstate to Superpower - and must be stoppedWATCH: Labour responds to yesterday's Conservative attack ad with its own video on "Tory cuts" Cameron attacks Brown's public spending "lies"..."David Cameron and Gordon Brown clashed repeatedly during Prime Minister's Question Time as the Conservative leader attacked...