Labour’s challenger in Bosworth for the General Election is appealing for local officials to reconsider their decision and to save the traditional election night count. Despite a vote in the House of Commons and widespread cross-party support across the country for traditional election night counts officials at Hinckley and Bosworth Borough Council appear to be sticking to their plan of starting the constituency’s election count on the morning after polling day. Labour’s Parliamentary Candidate Rory Palmer said: “I think all candidates and our campaign teams understand the importance of accurate counting and the need to comply with important requirements to ensure ballot security. However, there can be no denying that the drama and excitement of election night...

With the general election looking to be heading towards a hung Parliament according to the latest prediction we’ve published from a group of academics, how are things looking for the Liberal Democrats? We’ve published three previews of the election: My view: Follow the yellow brick road? The Liberal Democrats’ general election campaign My other view: The 2010 general election: it’s a game of three halves Stephen’s view: The Lib Dems and the 2010 general election … ‘The future’s bright, the future’s gold.’ But regardless of what you think of the ability of Stephen and myself with the crystal ball, as Iain has pointed out – where we work, we win. If that ends up in a hung Parliament, then we know what Liberal Democrat members think the party should...

It was, I suppose, only to be expected that debates about the format and rules for the televised pre-election leaders' debates would hot up as the election draws nigh - no matter how pointless and unenforceable such rules are almost certain to be.The Guardian is warning that the party leaders' election debates are in danger of 'being negotiated to death', and today's Times is reporting that Brown is calling in 'the Obama team for help with television debate'. As readers of this blog will know, I'm fully expecting the 'debates' to be as boring as all the other interviews the media will be inflicting on us during the election. But all this talk about the debates about the debates has given me an idea: Why don't the BBC, ITN and Sky insist that all further negotiations with the main...

votewise.co.uk is an independent website which lists forthcoming by-elections and candidates. It geto a decent audience, making it well worth using – but not all by-election campaigns make use of it. The site displays page view figures on the biography pages for each by-election candidate and the numbers (even allowing for being page views rather than absolute unique visitors) are generally impressive, with a candidate’s page typically viewed several hundred times. This traffic is driven from respectable and relevant sources, such as the Electoral Commission and search traffic from people hunting for by-election information. Given the number of votes it takes to win or lose an election, and the likelihood that a high proportion of those views are from (potential) voters,...

The general election will be held on May 6th this year. That is now clear. We have been told this by three ministers now: Chris Bryant, the Europe Minister: I hope that by the time of the general election on May 6, relations [between Britain and countries on South America] will have improved. Andy Burnham, Health Secretary: I hope you will add your weight in whatever way you can to this campaign and, if we focus on it, we can have changed a little piece of the law by May this year. and now Bob Ainsworth, Defence Secretary: We haven’t lost the election. We need to fight it together with all our strengths and ability and put that choice to the British public because I think they will wake up and rue the day if they wind up with a Conservative government in charge of this country...

(20/01/10) There will be an election for the general secretary of UNISON this spring, the union's national executive council decided this morning. The meeting voted to set the process in motion for a five-month election period, which will see nominations take place from 4 February to 1 April, with a ballot starting on 17 May and ending on 11 June, ahead of the union's national delegate conference later that month. The result of the election will be announced on 22 June. The NEC noted that current general secretary Dave Prentis was entitled to remain in office until May 2013, under trade union legislation, the union's rules and the contract of employment entered into at his last re-election in 2005. However, Mr Prentis made it clear that he wished to submit himself for re-election this...

http://renelavanchy.wordpress.com/ just posted this on facebook.http://m.facebook.com/notes/rene-lavanchy/will-unison-election-overshadow-general-election/256421573875?rbaab65afFirst one, now two union elections threaten to overshadow Labour's prospects in the general election. This week, Unison – the biggest public sector union and one of Labour's biggest donors, will decide whether to hold an election this summer for general secretary. And there may be a challenger in the wings, which would drag the union's loyal links to Labour into the spotlight.Dave Prentis, Unison's current general secretary Prentis a Labour loyalist, was last elected in 2005, and by law union bosses have to be elected every five years. But here's the thing. Contrary to what Wikipedia says, Prentis was born in...

The general election date may have been leaked out due to slip-up by Chris Bryant: Speaking to diplomats at Canning House, a diplomatic think-tank, the Europe Minister seemed to confirm the widely held belief that the poll will be held on May 6 – the same day as the local council elections. Referring to recent tensions between Britain and countries in South America, Mr Bryant said: “I hope that by the time of the general election on May 6, relations will have improved.” I wrote a post on the prospect of a March election last month, with my reasons being as follows: A short campaign means Labour have to spend less money on the campaign – which is good for them, because they don’t have much. It means they don’t have a hold a Budget and thus do more than “appear” to have...

This year’s general election, (it’s nice to be able to say that at last, rather than speculating on the year), will be the first in a long time when a large proportion of the votes will be counted on the day after polling day, rather than on the night of the election.  Current estimates show this could be around 25% of seats. The result of this means that the traditional election night when politicos sit in front of the television watching the results come in, or those at counts try and find out from crappy radios what’s going on in the world outside of the sports hall, will largely disappear.  I’m against this for tradition reasons and because I believe it is important for democracy that we know the result as soon as possible, but there are plenty of posts from other people...

With new polling figures in, the general election prediction model we covered in November has churned out a new prediction for the next general election: New prediction: Conservative lead of 9% with 315 seats (11 short of an overall majority) Previous prediction: Conservative lead of 10% with 322 seats (4 short of an overall majority) Background to prediction In November Lib Dem Voice published an exclusive general election prediction, based on the work of a group of academics who have analysed polling data (not just party support levels) in the run up to previous British elections: Their predictive model works on a three-month lagged structure; i.e. their model uses current information and says “if a General Election were held in three months time, here’s what the result would be.”...

With the unfortunate demise of David Taylor, Labour MP for Leicestershire North West, a by-election would normally be imminent. But will it this time? With the general election being so close – it has to be held by June 3rd, though it is expected to be held either on March 25th or May 6th (the latter to coincide with local elections) – it seems pretty silly and frankly wasteful to hold two elections within a few months of each other. But on the flip-side, this means leaving 60,000-odd people without representation for three to six months. Three months is acceptable considering how close the general election is, the cost and time of holding a by-election. But six months is excessive. If Gordon Brown is not planning to hold the election until June (or even May), he must move the...

Much talk lately about the date for the 2010 election, with the most popular choice currently being 25 March, as Ladbrokes have now stopped taking bets on that as the date - showing the wisdom of crowds. Or not.I don't buy it, to be honest.My best bet is 6 May, to coincide with the metropolitan election dates. If we have an election on the 25 March, campaigners across the country will have to energise themselves after an intense five week short campaign ready for a second burst of activity in the run up to the locals. The party workers won't be happy and the public won't thank us for making them traipse to the polls again within a few weeks.The advantage - apparently - is that it gives the government some control over the date of the poll, as the further through the year we go, the more...

I’m pretty sceptical of the chatter about Gordon Brown calling an early general election*. Here’s one the reasons which hasn’t been much talked about. Imagine we have an early election. Imagine too that Labour manages what is probably the limit of its hopes – largest party in a hung Parliament. (Witness Labour MPs going round telling Liberal Democrats how much they now love voting reform.) Labour then hangs on to power. But in May along comes a round of local elections, in which Labour will – almost certainly – suffer massive losses. If you’ve got experience of a no overall majority council, you’ll know just how much the political momentum – and hence the range of plausible governing arrangements which can hang together – can...

It once was the common assumption that a general election would be held on the last day possible – in early June – so that Gordon Brown could hold on to power for as long as possible. This conclusion was reached based on, at the time, perfectly logical reasons: after bottling out of an election during th autumn of 2007 when he took over and gained a temporary poll lead, he was hardly going to call an election before he had to when he was more than likely to lose! Especially considering his well-known long-term covetousness of the job. But now, after the recent slight reduction of the Conservatives poll lead and the Pre-Budget Report, that assumption has shifted. May 6th was expected to be the date due to the practicalities of the local elections, but now March 25th is being...

… perhaps we should have called in election back in autumn 2007, says Jack Straw. Asked whether the party should have taken a gamble in autumn 2007, Mr Straw told the New Statesman: “Yes, entirely, in hindsight”. He added: “But I was not saying that [then]. Whether to call an election became an issue only at the time of the [Labour] conference. “By that stage, Gordon had said he was there for the rest of the parliament. “There was also something practical: if the election had been called then it would have taken place after the clocks had gone back in early November. “The public don’t like elections being called unnecessarily. The public might have said: ‘You’ve got a majority, why don’t you use it?’” (Telegraph) Of course, the real reason Gordon Brown did...

Dear Eric Pickles, As you seem to spend most of your time running round the country trying to dampen local political fires such as the row over the ‘Turnip Taliban’, I can’t say for sure how much time you actually dedicate to election planning.  Rumours of a general election in March continue to circulate, yet the Conservatives potentially have a lot to gain and a lot to lose if this does indeed come to pass. According to recent reports, senior conservatives believe that Gordon Brown may call a general election in March to head off the prospect of bad economic statistics scuppering his claim that he had guided Britain safely out of recession.  The economy is expected to grow in the final three months of this year, with the official figures due to be released in...

Election forecasting, that is the using data such as party standings, leader ratings and economic indicators to predict the result of the next general election, is still in its infancy. The combination of general elections only every four years or so with the relatively recent innovation of regular detailed polling figures means that there has often been a shortage of data and election results with which to create and test models. However, as each general election passes the volume of data accumulates and predictive models get more sophisticated. Of course, this begs the question about how well you can predict an election in advance based on statistical factors. What about events and the human touch? In order to shed a bit of light on this question (and to have a bit of political...

I'm down with the flu and not at my best, however, I do want to comment on the result of the Glasgow North-East by-election.If you look at ukpollingreport, you will see since 1997, Labour has polled fewer votes at each subsequent election, although during this time Michael Martin was standing as Speaker. In 1997 Labour polled 22534 votes. In 2001, 16053 votes. In 2005, 15153 votes. In the by-election, Labour polled 12231 votes. There has been a boundary change, but in a solid Labour area, this has not made any difference. What we see here, is election after election, Labour voters are not voting for other parties, instead they are staying at home. If you look into data in other constituencies you will see the same trend. This is why Labour MPs with majorities under around 8000 are...

I am someone who has been saying for a while now that the general election is not going to happen in May and will be called early; recently I have been claiming that I believe the election will be in March now it seems we have an inch of evidence that suggests this. A Labour MP has advertised a job to finish in March 2010, so why has he got a job that will finish in March out of all months.Personally I would have expected MPs to be taking people on to run their general election campaign; clearly this then suggests that the election will be in March hence the job finishing in March? Or am I getting ahead of myself by reading too many conspiracy...

What is likely to be last Westminster election before the general election next year, Labour’s Willie Bain stormed to victory and said that the result showed that it’s still “game on” for Gordon Brown. Willie Bain comfortably beat the SNP’s David Kerr with a majority of 8,111 and almost 60% of the vote. The Conservatives were unable to make any headway, barely beating the BNP to third place, despite campaign visits by David Cameron and George Osborne. “It’s a great endorsement for Gordon Brown in his efforts to set the economy back on track and it shows the General Election is very much game on,” Willie Bain said. “I am overwhelmed by this result and I am over the moon about the trust that people have placed in me. “This is a...

Forget a March election. At least that's what Iain Dale thinks, along with the BBC's Nick Robinson and George Osborne's advisers.I was out with some friends tonight and the this subject came up. I have thought for some time the most likely month for a general election is April. The turnout at a general election is always higher than at local elections. With this in mind, Labour would get a bigger drubbing at the hands of the voters across town and county halls. Although Labour is bankrupt and hasn't got the cash to fight a general election, never mind the local elections, I still think Brown will steer clear of May 6 and he won't let this parliament run until June. I predict the general election will be on April 15. April 8 is unlikely as it is just after Easter. If I am right, remember...

Dear Prime Minister,there are rumours circulating that you are considering 25 March as a General Election polling day.I would urge you not to go for that date and instead to go for 6 May.There's one simple reason. There will be local government elections, whatever the date of the General Election, on 6 May for every seat in every London borough, for 1/3 of seats in every metropolitan borough, 1/3 of seats in 20 unitary authorities, and in 78 district councils.A quick look at the list (http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2010.htm) shows this actually implies election of councillors in almost all of the major urban areas in England, i.e. exactly the places where Labour has the best chance of getting councillors elected.Holding the General Election on the same day as these local...

I have just read a blog post by Simon Goldie whose blog I have come across for the first time, the post suggests that Brown and party will call a March election, what do others think? This idea of the March election is based on the idea that Labour doesn’t want bad publicity by doing the budget for next year, personally I like the motive that is being thought of and for that reason believe an early election should not be ruled out.Could Labour be saved by calling a March election? I think they could, for the simple reason that a pre-budget election will be easier for Labour then a post-budget election. This is based on the simple argument that cuts that Labour might promise in the budget will be bad news and will turn the electorate against Labour even more.Mind you, the Tories would...

Cross posted from Political Betting's Channel 2:After much conversation on this topic, I have decided to do my research and write a blog post about it. This topic for all those wondering what I am talking about, is whether or not Nick Clegg’s party are going to lose badly at the next general election or not.Below I have two poll results from October 2004 and November 2004 and if you compare them to the outcome result for the Lib Dems, you realise that the party is in trouble unless something magic happens soon.Poll from October 2004 by YouGov:Conservative 29%Labour 35%Liberal Democrat 22%Poll from November 2004 by YouGov:Conservative 32%Labour 35%Liberal Democrat 23%The actual outcome for the Lib Dems in vote share relations was 22% of the vote, which brings forward an interesting...

Some great news came the Lib Dems way today, that good news being the Liberal Democrats win in the Bedford by election. It seems that the great run Lib Dem campaign has been successful and the party has taken a seat that will cast a shadow over Labour and the Tories for many months to come.The Bedford by-election is the biggest election that will take place from now until the general election, parliamentary elections will come and go but the biggest election of the year was this election. Clearly this election has shown that the Lib Dems can win big at the next election.The Conservatives have been beaten by the Lib Dems, there mission was to beat Labour and tell the people that they are ready for government.The Tories can not do that after this election; Labour can not even claim that...

My initial response of Dave Hodgson’s fantastic win in Bedford today was this: I have to say I’m surprised by the lack of media interest in this. Surely a Mayoral by-election is as newsworthy as a Parliamentary by-election? To which ‘ollie’s’ response was: Don’t be ridiculous. As Nick Barlow went on to say, more people voted in the Bedford Mayoral by-election than in Norwich North earlier this year and indeed Bedford is larger than a parliamentary constituency. So even if we were just playing a numbers game, it affects more people. As Stephen Tall went on to say, elected mayors have actual executive power, something that Chloe Smith is unlikely to wield even after the next general election. But it is also a test of the Tories’ so-called “open...

The Polls have opened in the Bedford Borough Mayoral Election By-election. The By-election was caused by the sad death of Better Bedford Mayor Frank...

Chris Davies has launched his campaign to stop Tony Blair getting elected as the President of European Council and personally I am amazed at the lengths people are going to, to have an election for President of Europe. The rumours are spreading that Blair would run for President IF an election was called, Chris Davies has now thrown his hat into the ring of IF an election was called.Following the announcements by Chris Davies and the rumour that Tony Blair will run, I thought heck why shouldn't I run for President of Europe. With this in mind I am putting myself up for a potential candidate for an election that might not even happen; we all know the election is still many months away but why not?When the election is announced, requirements will be set for candidates and what they have to...

Conservatives - clearly, they are highlighting the extent of the debt problem and the fiscally irresponsible nature of the Government's expenditure profile since 2002 in order to be able to blame Labour for what is inevitably going to come. Assuming that the Conservatives win the next election, we will see how the strategy has worked after the election. If it has been successful, Labour will be blamed for the cuts in expenditure and for some of the difficult choices that will need to be made as a result.If the Conservatives don't win that election, we will see the Conservatives shouting, "Don't blame us, we told you so.", when the cuts in expenditure and tax rises bite after the next election.On balance, I think that the tactics will prove to have been beneficial in terms of the election...

The postings by Tory Bear were very interesting about the anti Zionist employee of Barry Gardiner MP. I covered it on this blog and now I can report via the Bear that the employee who was anti Zionist has been sacked by Gardiner.Although I am supportive of Palestine over Israel, and I believe that Palestine needs more power over the land that was there's but putting that issue aside it's good to see that Gardiner has got rid of Brown.Is this the start of the Bloggers election; are bloggers on their way to making and breaking politicians at the next general election? All I know is watch blogs if you want interesting revelations coming out closer to election time, especially when it's about sitting MPs who are up for election.The dirt will come out, either via blogs or via the media but...