The Labour Party was gearing itself up 14 months ago to call a General Election.  Brown marched his troops (or should that be troups? they are like a ballet troup) to the top of the hill, then dithered, and marched them down again. Lord Mandy is behind the current spin.  So this “snap election” is a bit better spun. But the problem is for Mandy is the unpredictability of his new boss (unlike the predictable Blair), as Mandy saw when Brown went loopy at PMQs last week. Labour is setting out its stall for a snap poll with its announcements and hints on taxation.  The problem is, of course, and poor Mandy no doubt realises this, is that - even if they had a poll lead - Brown is too much of a ditherer to call a General Election.       ...

So the Conservative plans to match Labour’s spending plans have been abandoned.  About time too.  Meanwhile, Labour is about to unveil a set of handouts to its core vote, i.e. tax credits and what not. As argued by Janet Daley in today’s Telegraph, the Conservatives (as well as not keeping to Labour’s profligacy) need to target tax cuts to the most productive part of society, the middle-income working classes and lower-middle class who have been hammered by Brownian economic policy most.  These may well be Prescott’s tectonic plates moving again, but the Tories might just pull off a masterstroke.  Here’s hoping they do.  After all, no matter what the public think of certain leading figures, the only Government they can truly trust is a Tory one....

In a previous article I quoted extensively from both Jeff Randall’s masterly dissection of Labour’s poor record on the economy and from Matthew Elliott’s spot-on tax recommendations.  It is ironic, given the 10p fiasco earlier this year (which was largely responsible for Labour’s defeat at Crewe) and the fiasco that has been Brownian economic policy, that the latest MORI poll has Labour at 37% (+7), the Tories on 40% (-5) and the Lib Dems on 12% (-2).  Labour’s policies are doomed as they’ll increase further, as Praguetory observes, the size of the state and mess the economy up. It is now certain that Brown will call a spring 2009 election - or sooner if he can - because the electorate have fallen for Mandelson’s hyper-spinning.  There’s...

Rhodri Morgan speaking about the Union flag in January:The flag should be a symbol of unity and part of a modern expression of patriotism too.All the United Kingdom should honour it, not ignore it. We should assert that the Union flag by definition is a flag for tolerance and inclusion.He was right then, not so sure about his latest...

Douglas Alexander is squashing “chatter” that Labour are planning to call a spring election in order to benefit from their current recovery in the polls: As election coordinator I haven’t spoken to Gordon Brown about the possibility of an election… Not a poster site has been booked - we are getting on with the job of focussing on how we can help families through the difficult times they are facing… Of course there will be chatter in the newspapers, there may be chatter in the tearoom but I can assure you at the level of the cabinet we are entirely focussed on trying to help people with rising food bills, rising fuel bills and all the concerns they have got. He’s dusting off the old “getting on with the job” mantra. But he is certainly...

Rodney Grief over on Centre Right suggests that when Ozzy Osborne finally does go, that he should be replaced by Ken Clarke.  This would be electoral suicide.  If ever there was a throwback to the Major era, Clarke is No 1 throwback - and Labour, Mandy et al would have a field day.  Clarke was interviewed yesterday and in his interview basically insulted Conservative Peer Lord Kalms, who I think is a former Treasurer of the Party, and who has donated quite a lot of his money to the Tory cause.  Lord Kalms has some very sound conservative, right-wing views unlike the wet Europhile Clarke. Ken Clarke, after all, was the man who introduced stealth taxes to this country.  He’s not a low tax politicians. Clarke is also a traitor whose betrayal in standing - along with the man who...

In the previous post I highlighted the importance of social policy to deal with the urban dystopia and the underclass.  But let’s not forget the economic context - and how tax and benefits policy disincentives many people from working - or even starting a business. Worth reading today is Jeff Randall’s masterly dissection of how Brown is like the little boy who broke his neighbour’s window but is trying to blame another kid and is going to help fix the window, do the garden (which he messed up too), wash the car, and even walk the dog… The final bill for Mr Brown’s incompetence will be huge. When Labour came to power in 1997, unemployment was close to two million. Today, it is back at that level – and set to become much worse. The CBI expects the jobless total...

This little boy is Baby P. His picture is in tomorrow’s Independent, as well as the fact that there were “‘issues’ at baby death council“, and how ministers were warned but did nothing about the shambolic Haringey social services department.  Haringey Council will forever be known as the Baby Death Council. Lord Mandelson’s strategy has fallen apart after Brown’s (and his MPs’) despicable performance at PMQs this week.  In the light of the murder of a little boy, in which not only the social services department at the local Council but the Government, is culpable, our current recession - which we will get out of by 2011 or 2012 at the latest - pales into insignificance. Remember 12 February 1993?  After that day, Tony Blair highlighted...

Over at Conservative Home Tim has commented on Winnett’s Telegraph blogs article on how Labour might win an election.  But are the British public stupid enough to fall for Mandy’s spin and to vote Labour back in again?  Methinks not.  They have a plan but it won’t work. About 10% of the electorate (which was Labour’s core voters) liked his handling of the financial crisis. Well done Lord Mandy. Many people won’t like his behaviour in PMQs. BUT Lord Mandy has a strategy that involves substantial tax cuts, and other ‘good news’, with a spring 09 election pencilled in.  If a chunk of the electorate think they’ll be better off financially under Labour (HOW WRONG THEY WILL BE), Brown might have shift the polls enough and call an election. But...

What an image - Brown and Cameron as taxcutters, but here we have it … auld Fraser Nelson, though, is a wise man and has suggested how the Tories could cut spending and taxes … while boosting the economy … rather than borrowing … he might just be on to something.       ...

Now it transpires that the Government was told about the incompetence and systematic failings at Haringey Council which caused the death of Baby P. Not only does the Labour-run Haringey Council and its social services staff have this little kid’s blood on their hands, but so too it appears does the Government. Is a minister going to fall on his or her sword and resign?  Not just the junior minister involved, but the Secretary of State for Education & Skills - Ed Balls.  He should resign now. So much for ‘Every Child Matters.’       ...

The BBC is reporting: Investigations involving police, social services and health workers are under way after the deaths of two young brothers in Manchester. The bodies of Romario Mullings-Sewell, aged two, and his three-month-old brother, Delayno, were found at a house in Cheetham Hill on Wednesday evening. Their 21-year-old mother has been detained under the Mental Health Act. Police visited the house hours before finding the boys, who were known to social services and the local NHS. The police watchdog is to investigate Greater Manchester Police’s response to calls made in the hours before two young boys were killed. Officers were first called at about 1320 GMT by a GP who raised concerns for the family’s welfare after being visited by the mother. These two little...

Fraser Nelson describes yesterday’s PMQs as “Westminster at its worst”.  What did Labour MPs and, worst of all, Gordon Brown think they were playing at?  Their attempt to shout down Cameron, and Brown’s slanderous accusation of “playing politics”, was on all the main news bulletins. It shows shows Labour in its true colours.  Labour shouldn’t get too complacent about its 6-point poll deficit.  It will eventually dawn on people that Labour has caused the economic mess, social mess and institutional mess (including the shambles that is Labour-run Haringey Council) and Labour’s not right to fix these problems. But just when did Labour, once thew party of the charismatic and ‘nice’ Mr Blair, become the nasty part?...

Today we learn that official unemployment has reached the grand total of 1,820,000.  Yes, nearly two million. Brown said there’d be no return to Boom and Bust - and now we have … boom and bust. And he said there’d be no return to 3 million unemployed - but, if you add to the 1.82 Million the 2.42 on incapacity benefit last year (probably more now) - the unofficially unemployed - then that brings us to a total of 4,240,000 Unemployed or on Incapacity Benefit. Well done, Gordon.  And you’re rising in the polls.  Can you make it any worse and get a further rise in the polls for “handling your economic incompetence well.”       ...

A few years back Labour launched “Every Child Matters” with great fanfare.  It was the policy document that was supposed to make sure there would never again be another Victoria Climbié. Haringey Council’s social workers’ incompetence, however, has led to the death of Baby P, or Child A, who was murdered in the family home by an evil brute: The report says that there were “numerous examples” of good practice [RUBBISH] within all agencies involved in the case, but concludes: “There were many factors which contributed to the inability of the agencies to understand what was happening to Child A.  With the possible exception of the paediatric assessment of 01.08.07, none on their own were likely to have enabled further responses that might have prevented the...

Published at Channel 4......

A lot has changed since May and, with the Glenrothes result (7,000 Labour majority over SNP) and today’s Times poll giving Lab 35%, Con 41%, LD 16%, something strange is going on. People are either incredibly stupid to swing back to Labour in an economic crisis. Or they’ve fallen for Mandelson’s spin that they swore never to believe again. Or else Labour has put something in the water? Or is it that it’s not just the Brown bounce, but it’s also the Osborne bust?  If the Shadow Chancellor (and, by implication, his mate Dave) showed some leadership on the economy then the polls would be very different. There’s a very strong chance that Brown will go to the polls in 2009, if public opinion towards him and his Government improves further.  Or are people...

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Currently, we have a lot of arguments about whether tax cuts should be funded by borrowing or by reducing expenditure elsewhere.  A series of excellent articles by Andrew Lilico on Centre Right are worth reading. There has not been much intellectualism in the debate so far, so thank goodness for Lilico.  Not that one would expect any intellectualism from either upper-class twit Osborne or dour Scots Darling/Brown. Lord Keynes included tax cuts as one of his means of stimulating the economy, and Art Laffer demonstrated that tax cuts stimulate the economy.  Meanwhile Friedman’s thesis was that economic freedom led to better economic growth.  Basically.  So giving people more of their money back to spend as they choose is economic freedom. People aren’t too concerned about...

There has been even less coverage of the New Zealand election than the Canadian one, which I find sad.On Saturday the National Party won 45.5 per cent of the vote and 59 of the 122 Parliament seats, meaning a majority in the election.Their coalition partner ACT won five seats, while the supportive United Future party won one seat.The Labour Party, by contrast, holds 43 seats, with 8 held by the Greens and one held by the Progressive Party.Former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark has conceded defeat.Channelnewsasia reports that the Prime Minister elect John Key wants to be sworn in by November 17th, in order to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders summit on November 22nd.More from Bloomberg.Guido Fawkes claimed promises of tax cuts by John Key helped win the election for...

Our lovely Home Secretary now claims she’s pursuing ID cards because the public demands them: Jacqui Smith says public demand means people will be able to pre-register for an ID card within the next few months. The cards will be available for all from 2012 but she said: “I regularly have people coming up to me and saying they don’t want to wait that long.” The home secretary made the claim as she unveiled revised ID scheme plans. Phil Booth, national coordinator of the NO2ID campaign said: Jacqui Smith’s claim that people were saying they wanted an ID card “beggared belief” and would “come back to haunt her”. “She must be ignoring twice the number of people who are coming up to her and saying I don’t want my details on any...

Trevor Phillips thinks it is: The public in this country would, he believes, embrace a black leader but the system would prevent it happening. “Here, the problem is not the electorate, the problem is the machine.” It was no coincidence that there were only 15 ethnic-minority MPs, he said. “The parties and the unions and the think-tanks are all very happy to sign up to the general idea of advancing the cause of minorities but in practice they would like somebody else to do the business. It’s institutional racism.” I actually disagree with Trevor Phillips in as much as I don’t accept that the UK political system is any more institutionally racist than the US system. The House of Representatives does relatively better than the House of Commons, but the Senate does far worse...

Surprisingly, Labour won the by-election in Glenthrothes. I say “surprisingly”, but Labour were never out of the game. They always had a chance of winning, and only idiots *cough*Salmond*cough* said that it was in the bag for the SNP. However, the amount of its vote that Labour managed to keep is surprising. In 2005, Labour had a majority of 10,664, and in 2008 a majority of 6,737, a loss of 4,000. The SNP increased its vote by 4,500, and both the Conservatives and Lib Dems lost their deposit. The biggest loser of the night was the Lib Dems, who were dismissed by the electorate into fourth place - down from third. Gordon Brown has hailed this victory as a “vote of confidence” in the government. Err, excuse me? How, precisely? Let’s look at the facts:...

It’s hard to fathom, but she does: In her speech, Ms Blears also complained about a “spreading corrosive cynicism” in political discussion. She turned her fire on political “bloggers” - accusing them of fuelling disengagement by focusing on “unearthing scandals, conspiracies and perceived hypocrisy” and of being written by “people with disdain for the political system and politicians”. Err I realise I may be playing into her hands by saying this, but free speech much? No wonder she has a problem with blogging - New Labour’s authoritarian agenda is increasingly predicated on stifling free speech. It’s practically impossible for them to inhibit blogging though - a principle means of uncovering the abuses of her party and...

The kingdom of fife should hang its ugly unionist head in shame.Pathetic little no marks put a muppet like roy to krap on them on behave of london labour.You idiots will get what you deserve.Fifers are anti scottish and a disgrace to their country.Throw in a few more "scums" and "traitors" and I think it's fair to say that the Cybernats are in full meltdown mode this morning. And here’s the reason why:Labour candidate Lindsay Roy has won the Glenrothes by-election with a 4.96% swing from Labour to the SNP. Here is the result in full: • Lindsay Roy, Labour - 19,946 • Peter Grant, SNP - 13,209 • Maurice Golden, Conservative - 1,381 • Harry Wills, Lib Dem - 947 • Jim Parker, SSCUP - 296 • Morag Balfour, Scottish Socialist Party - 212 • Kris Seunarine, UKIP - 117 • Louise...

Good to see that Shaun Woodward is not letting hard times stop him partying hard for fiftieth birthday. They have booked an entire luxury hotel (owned by the Bransons) as well as a mansion for their guests in Marrakesh, Morocco. The Sunday Times reports that yesterday evening...20 members of the party celebrated at Le Tobsil restaurant, rated by Michael Winner as “one of the greatest places in the world”. As two musicians in Berber robes played under a roof open to the stars, the guests dined on poultry tagines, chicken with thin pancakes, lamb tagines, lamb with quinces, a vegetable couscous, oriental-style cooked fruits and homemade pastries.Well it is his wife's money and they are entitled to spend it however they like. Marrakesh is famous for the availability of exotic...

Major Sebastian Morley of the SAS resigned because the Labour government has failed to support and equip our troops well enough. As the inspiring X Factor stars (you should vote for Eoghan, by the way) sing for heroes, Labour betrays our troops. A vote for Labour is a vote against troops.  Whatever your view on the war, you must be sympathetic to the suffering of troops who go to war for their country.  Don’t let Labour betray our troops any more.       ...

Not exactly ground-breaking news is it? Since they began with a 10,000 majority, it is hardly surprising that Labour still stand a fighting chance of keeping Glenrothes - Gordo’s neighbouring constituency, remember - red. From the start it has been a straight fight between Labour and the SNP, with the Conservatives and Lib Dems standing no chance of winning. From when the result of the Glasgow East by-election was announced, no Labour MP was safe. However, since the recession, Labour’s polling woes have lessened - though the polls still put the Conservatives 9% in the lead, which would give them a majority of 22 in the Commons after a general election. So even though Labour have improved their polling position, it’s still not exactly looking rosy for them. There is, as...

Labour’s anti-drugs campaign has not really achieved its aim. Why? Because cocaine used has doubled since it was launched. [Home Office] data show[s] that even after a modest fall in cocaine use from 2006/07 to 2007/08, the drug is roughly twice as heavily used now as it was a decade ago. Labour launched a ten-year national drug strategy in 1998, promising to “focus on those that cause the g