One of the less baleful consequences of the financial crisis is that every political pundit, columnist, and indeed blogger, has become an amateur economist, whether economics were previously his/her ‘specialist subject’ or not. Economics’ centrality, as the pivotal issue on which politics turns, might be disputed but its importance is not. Therefore it does no-one any harm whatsoever to start thinking a lot harder about how money and markets interact with government.The truth is, however, that we are dealing with a theoretical rather than an exact science, dismalness not withstanding. National economies are staggeringly complex, that complexity is multiplied infinitely for the world economy, and its workings are hotly disputed. Yesterday I suggested that David Cameron is...

The Labour Party was gearing itself up 14 months ago to call a General Election.  Brown marched his troops (or should that be troups? they are like a ballet troup) to the top of the hill, then dithered, and marched them down again. Lord Mandy is behind the current spin.  So this “snap election” is a bit better spun. But the problem is for Mandy is the unpredictability of his new boss (unlike the predictable Blair), as Mandy saw when Brown went loopy at PMQs last week. Labour is setting out its stall for a snap poll with its announcements and hints on taxation.  The problem is, of course, and poor Mandy no doubt realises this, is that - even if they had a poll lead - Brown is too much of a ditherer to call a General Election.       ...

Via the......

Following on form the las post. Instead of looking at Brown's words and predictions as Chancellor here is a neat little graph that compares his fantasy land predictions with the reality of what he actually did.The dotted downwards lines are his borrowing figures and his predictions for the coming years. The solid orange line that rises in an approximate 30 degree angle upward trend is reality.Click Image for larger VersionDebt is not down, it has risen year on year whilst he stood up in Parliament and said it was always coming down. The man is a complete and total liar.Thanks to Croydonian for plotting the numbers for...

Please click the picture. A static version of this image is appearing in Tribune this......

There can be no doubt that, as the recession hits, Government spending will increase and tax receipts will fall. I believe this is described as the influence of ‘automatic stabilisers’ by economists … why oh why can’t they speak in simple English?In essence, as the recession hits the productive parts of the economy become less profitable and, as a result, tax receipts fall; sales fall and VAT receipts fall; people lose their jobs and tax receipts fall; and so on. At the same time the Government’s expenditure on welfare (and on health) increases as more people become dependent on the state for a period of time.The Government says that it wants not only to cover that increased expenditure but to top it by spending even more (we will discover on what and how much on Monday) and...

Tony Blair is to co-host a summit on the global financial crisis with President Nicolas Sarkozy in January, in a move likely to infuriate Gordon Brown.Mr Blair's office has been in in touch with the Prime Minister to invite him to the Paris conference, but Mr Brown has so far refused to accept the invitation, with an official saying last night he was still considering his "diary commitments".Sources said that Mr Brown was "relaxed" about the event taking place. However, any attempt by Mr Blair to overshadow Mr Brown's efforts on the world stage is likely to anger Downing Street aides. He has rebuilt his political reputation by claiming to lead the world in tackling the global financial crisis – most recently with a "road map" for financial reform he presented at a G20 summit last...

All is confusion. The political landscape of a world roiled by recession is all but unrecognisable. Voters stagger around like the cast of the now-revived TV drama Survivors, bewildered figures trying to make sense of a political geography where nothing stands where it used to be and nothing is as it was. In this new topsy-turvy land, Labour earns Conservative disapproval for wanting to cut taxes, probably in next week's pre-budget report. For those who grew up understanding tax as perhaps the clearest dividing line between our two main parties - tax-and-spend Labour v tax-slashing Tories - this is truly baffling. What on earth is going on? Gordon Brown says he is doing no more than following the basic Keynesian principle that the most useful tool for digging your way out of a recession...

Home Comment at end 19th November, 2008 Blair & Sarkozy to co-host financial forum Blair was quoted in the French presidency’s statement as saying the conference comes at a moment “when we are trying to define a new model of capitalism and reflect on the values that will help us adapt to globalization.” Sarkozy:“More than ever, we should show that we can propose concrete solutions.” Now this IS intriguing. Another economic post-mortem or the labour pains of a new economic model baby? Blair: So what do you think of the economic mess, Nicolas? Sarkozy: "Je ne sais pas. Do you have a lower chair here?" “What?” I hear you ask, “Didn’t we just have a summit on the world’s economic situation”. Yes, we did. It was...

UK inflation tumbled at a record pace in October to 4.5 %, down from the 16-year peak of 5.2 % in September, official figures showed yesterday. A sharp fall in transport costs, coupled with lower fuel and food prices, helped to push down the Consumer Price Index to the lowest rate since July. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also fell from 2.2 % to 1.9 %, indicating that retailers are cutting prices in a bid to attract consumers into the shops as the British economy head towards recession. The bigger-than-expected fall in inflation helps to explain the Bank of England’s dramatic 1.5 % rate cut earlier this month as, until now, the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee hag been concerned about entrenching inflation in the economy if it cut rates too...

So the Conservative plans to match Labour’s spending plans have been abandoned.  About time too.  Meanwhile, Labour is about to unveil a set of handouts to its core vote, i.e. tax credits and what not. As argued by Janet Daley in today’s Telegraph, the Conservatives (as well as not keeping to Labour’s profligacy) need to target tax cuts to the most productive part of society, the middle-income working classes and lower-middle class who have been hammered by Brownian economic policy most.  These may well be Prescott’s tectonic plates moving again, but the Tories might just pull off a masterstroke.  Here’s hoping they do.  After all, no matter what the public think of certain leading figures, the only Government they can truly trust is a Tory one....

Let's play a game. It's called spot the anomalies."borrowing for this year and future years is therefore £27 billion (2003), £24 billion (2004), £23 billion (2005), £22 billion (2006) and £22 billion (2007)." Budget 2003"borrowing for this year will fall to £34 billions (2004) and in future years fall further to £33 billions (2005), falling again to £29 billions (2006), then falling to £28 billions (2007), £24 billions (2008) and £22 billions (2009). Budget 2004"[it] will be £34bn (2005) this year falling to £32bn (2006) next year, then falling again to £29bn (2007), falling to £27bn (2008), then to £24bn (2009) and then £22bn (2010)." Budget 2005"[borrowing] will be £37bn this year, £36bn next year, then £30bn, falling to £25bn, £24bn and £23bn in 2010-11" Budget...

David Cameron is getting angry. He held out the olive branch of a bi-partisan approach to the financial crisis and it has been used as a stick by Brown to beat him. Cameron was foolish and naive to think Brown would treat him in any other way. We have a very tribal and partisan prime minister, who has no intention of giving up his power. If he could somehow postpone the next general election on the grounds of national importance, I am sure he would.There now has to be a complete rethink of the Conservative strategy. As a party, Conservatives have to put clear, blue water between themselves and Labour. Anyone who read my post from yesterday will see how angry I am with Brown. The only time I have seen him happy is when he is striding around the stage trying to solve problems he helped...

"And cancel Christmas ... for the private sector." Daniel Hannan's latest at the Telegraph's blog gave me a chuckle: "I was naturally delighted to read that the Croatian government plans to cancel Christmas. Actually, to be precise, Christmas has not been cancelled but privatised: the hard-bitten Croats have decided that, given the current crisis, it would be wrong for government...

THE ConservativeHome image surmises British politics - Cameron or Brown? File under - it’s in pink and mauve! The battle ground is over the gay vote… Via mauvist...

Unusually for me, for the past couple of weeks I’ve been watching PMQs. It hasn’t been a happy experience for me. On both occasions Clegg has been felled by Brown, who on both occasions has simply swatted him away by smearing about £20bn cuts in public services. And I can’t help but feel that the confusion at the heart of Clegg’s own strategy has lead these blows to be effectively self-inflicted wounds. It’s time he rethought this strategy. Instead of flailing wildly once Brown has accused him of wanting to cut public services, he should confront it face on. I’d like him to say something like: The Prime Minister has repeatedly accused me of wanting to cut public services. If by that he means I am calling for him to abandon the appalling money pit...

PIRACY is booming. It’s the world’s growth industry. Over the newswires, Anorak learns that a Hong Kong cargo ship has been attacked by pirates in the Gulf of Aden near the Yemen coast. The good ship Delight is loaded with 36,000 tonnes of wheat. Says one UN insider: “They’ve got oil for heating and fuel, and now they’ve got wheat. If they can hijack a boat carrying the G20 leaders, they will have democracy.” This latest hijack follows the capture of Sirius Star, and the two million barrels of oil it was carrying. The Sirius Star is the size of three football fields and three times the weight of a US aircraft carrier. It is the largest ship ever seized by pirates. Sky new reports that: “This year, Somali pirates have attacked 90 ships, more than double the number in...

In a previous article I quoted extensively from both Jeff Randall’s masterly dissection of Labour’s poor record on the economy and from Matthew Elliott’s spot-on tax recommendations.  It is ironic, given the 10p fiasco earlier this year (which was largely responsible for Labour’s defeat at Crewe) and the fiasco that has been Brownian economic policy, that the latest MORI poll has Labour at 37% (+7), the Tories on 40% (-5) and the Lib Dems on 12% (-2).  Labour’s policies are doomed as they’ll increase further, as Praguetory observes, the size of the state and mess the economy up. It is now certain that Brown will call a spring 2009 election - or sooner if he can - because the electorate have fallen for Mandelson’s hyper-spinning.  There’s...

HEY, tax doesn’t have to be taxing. Just ask Gordon Brown. It’s easy. You just say, “Make it so” and you can raise more taxes than a priapic Caesar. Gordon Brown is talking about deflation. Every week Gordon introduces a new word into the British lexicon. This week’s word is deflation. Woz-zat-meen-den? The Times is happy to step in: “Deflation means a period of consistently falling prices that can stall economic activity and eventually lead to depression.” Whoah! Save depression for later, lads. In between deflation and depression we must have defraud, degeneration, delude, demands (final and late) and dependence. There are many more words than that, each one hand-picked to spread confusion and ensure the electorate that if they get rid of Gordon – who alone knows all the...

After Labour excoriated shadow chancellor, George Osborne, for ‘irresponsibility’ and ‘talking down’ the pound, over the weekend, the Tories have launched what has every appearance of an effective comeback on economic issues. In the Telegraph, Boris Johnson defends his colleague’s right to offer a prognosis on the economy. Although this contention might appear self-evident, the government has reacted with increasing petulance on each occasion that an opposition politician dares to question the wisdom of Gordon Brown’s economic plans. Labour chose to interpret Conservative support for its bank bail-out as an open ended commitment to support all of its anti-recessionary measures. As Brown’s spending pledges become increasingly extravagant, and as tax cutting initiatives...

I don’t want to get into a debate as to the rights and wrongs of whether people should agree to donate their organs, although I am willing to state, for the record, that I support the organ donor programme. What concerns me is when government, in spite of advice to the contrary, determines that it knows best. The UK Organ Donation Taskforce have stated that they do not believe that ‘presumed consent’ would boost organ donation rates. In fact chair of the taskforce, Elisabeth Buggins said: “We found from recipient families and donor families that the concept of gift was very important to them and presumed consent would undermine that concept.” This was not what the government wanted to hear and Alan Johnson was said to be disappointed by their findings,...

Regular readers of my rantings will know that I have argued strongly against a windfall tax on the energy companies, which I felt was, in effect, a tax on enterprise. I also arguedthat Ofgem should either do its job or if doesn’t have the powers, then it must be provided with them, given they appear to be acting as the energy companies lapdog, not its regulator. However it is a two way street, the energy companies were quick to announce large scale price increases, in virtual unison, yet they are deliberately vague about when the prices will come down, even though wholesale prices are now precisely what they were, before we had to accept price hikes of around 40%. Apparently at their regular meeting Energy Minister Malcom Wicks and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband...

Why is the pound at a 12-year low against a basket of other OECD currencies? Peter Mandelson and Gordon Brown have peddled some pretty good bilge in their time, but I don’t think I have ever... [Visit boris-johnson.com for the full post and more information about Boris!]...

In quite the reverse to those magnificent men in their flying machines, that self proclaimed custodian of the world's economic future Gordon Brown has said that while taxes will be cut next week expect them to rise again after. David Cameron in response did come out with the rather good line: "Tax cuts should be for life, not just for Christmas." For it does seem that despite calls from the...

Perhaps I am lucky or perhaps it says something about my personality, but I do not hate anyone. I dislike some people and I dislike others intensely, however, when the chips are down, I would always offer a helping hand. Gordon Brown is the exception.I am coming very close to hating the man. Recently he has found a smile on his face. Recently he has a spring in his step. The only reason I do not hate him is because you cannot hate someone who has a mental illness, and I believe he has a mental illness. He is deluded. He cannot say sorry and he is does believe he has anything to say sorry for. He really believes the problems the UK faces are global problems and nothing to do with his ten years as Chancellor of the Exchequer. He really believes borrowing more to fund what he calls tax cuts,...

Rapid, coordinated and concerted action is needed to combat the global economic downturn Gordon Brown said today as he paved the way for an expected announcement on tax cuts.In a Commons statement on the weekend's first ever meeting of the G20 group of world leaders in Washington, the prime minister said there was an "emerging consensus" on the need for a broad and concerted international macroeconomic policy response to the financial crisis."The more coordinated the action the